5 Reasons Mobile Media Will Rule the (air)Waves
I just got back from the Mobile World Congress (http://www.mobileworldcongress.com/) in Barecolan on Friday – and my head is still spinning. Yeah, part of my disorientation is a major case of jet lag, but a new view of the future is keeping me dizzy. 55,000 attendees (I left out a zero in my previous blast) were gathered to figure out the future of mobile media. I attended over a dozen meetings. I roamed the 312,000 square feet of exhibition space (phones, phones, phones). And I talked to people from all over the world. I gotta share with you want I learned.
There was a lot of debate at this conference on a range of topics. But a consensus swept the conference. Mobile will become the most dominant communication medium of the future. Yeah, I know that is a big claim. And, yeah, you would expect a group of cell phone wonks to make that prediction. But I picked up on some evidence to support this view of things to come. Here are my five reasons mobile will rule the media – in the next 10 years.
The Numbers
First of all, mobile is already HUGE! There are roughly 6.6 billion people on the planet (to make this clear I am engaging in some liberal rounding – up and down). And there are 3.3 billion wireless users world-wide. Yeah, half the planet has a cell phone. How does that compare with other media? About a billion have used the internet. Although estimates range, most agree that there are probably about 1.6 billion TVs and slightly more radios worldwide. At the conference, an attendee asked if there was another technology that has had greater adoption. Yep, 4.2 billion people around the world have toothbrushes.
Two conclusions. Mobile is the way to communicate with the world. And with 2.4 billion not brushing their teeth, we run the risk of a global pandemic of gum disease.
Ad Potential
The mobile channel offers the most effective targeted communication medium imaginable. The cell phone is personal. Unlike TV, radio, or print, when a message is viewed, you know who saw it. Plus, the cell phone carriers have amazing demographic and tracking info at their disposal. Most of you are probably groaning at the prospect of your cell phone becoming another fount of commercials. But in a way, mobile commercials could be better. Targeted = relevant. The ads that we hate the most are the irrelevant ones that are continually thrown in our face. Spam “enhancement” products are the best/worst example. But mobile ads will know more about us – our gender (don’t you wish spammers were clued in on that front), age, and previous purchases. Soon, the ads will even be location sensitive. And, I learned a new term last week – frequency capping. Mobile ads can be set so that we only see them a certain number of times.
Sure there are challenges to overcome in mobile advertising. Standardization of metrics and defining inventory are two big ones. But, the potential in mobile advertising is just too tantalizing to ignore. There is money on the table, somebody is going to rake it in.
Transparent Pricing on Horizon
Apple wasn’t one of the 1300+ exhibitors, but not a session went by without mention of the iPhone. It wasn’t the iPhone’s technology that captured this international group’s attention. It was the “transparent pricing scheme.” It took me a while to figure out that meant the type of flat rate plan AT&T and Apple require you to subscribe to in order to own an iPhone. Every one of the carriers reported that with flat rate plans, users experimented. They watched videos. They surfed the web. They expanded their cell content repertoire. AT&T sang the praises of what a simplified pricing scheme could do to increase usage – 90% of iPhone users have surfed the web mobily. The other carriers were drooling. Mark my words. This transparent pricing scheme will take over. We will all be more comfortable doing new things on our phones. And, as a result, content producers will be more confident producing cool new things for us to do.
RPU
R(evenue) P(er) U(ser). They call it R-poo – ain’t that cute? That is how much money the carriers make off each subscriber. High RPU = cell holy grail. A representative from a cell phone carrier presented a graph that showed when a user upgraded her/his phone from a 2G model (no multimedia) to a 3G one (faster with more capability) the average RPU increased 120%. That means more money in the carriers’ pockets. So cell phone companies are going to be pushing even more creative handsets – ones with video, music, big screens, games, fun stuff. And they are going to be subsidizing them even more – that means these phones are going to be the ones that carriers will give away or allow you to easily upgrade to.
Once again, when more people have these cool phones and are using them more, there will be more creative content and more wild things we will want to do. All those ships are going to be rising with this unprecedented high tide.
Content Backers Convinced
Bob, Isabella, and Will laid it out for me at the conference. Oh I forgot, you probably know them as Mr. Redford, Ms. Rossellini, and Will.i.am (of the Black-Eyed Peas). They all talked at a very small gathering I attended (“exclusive” is the word that springs to mind). They are part of the creative corps waking up to the possibilities of mobile content. The Sundance Festival (Robert Redford’s baby) has been experimenting with mobile short films. Isabella Rossellini has produced a series of short films called “Green Porn” – they truly defy description but think Animal Planet meets the Playboy Channel. And Will.i.Am is shooting his own video with Nokia phones to be pushed out to handsets. The panels at the Mobile World Congress included MTV, ESPN, NBC, Universal, Disney. These groups are going mobile.
The biggest barrier to mobile for too long has been a dearth of creativity. With traditional content players focusing on mobile distribution, that could change very quickly.
Cell phones have already altered in radical ways the way we as individuals talk with each other. But up to this point in the US, distribution of one to many has belonged to a select group of industries – television, radio, music, film. Mark my words (and bet me if you dare) but mobile will join the pantheon of “mass” media very soon.
There was a lot of debate at this conference on a range of topics. But a consensus swept the conference. Mobile will become the most dominant communication medium of the future. Yeah, I know that is a big claim. And, yeah, you would expect a group of cell phone wonks to make that prediction. But I picked up on some evidence to support this view of things to come. Here are my five reasons mobile will rule the media – in the next 10 years.
The Numbers
First of all, mobile is already HUGE! There are roughly 6.6 billion people on the planet (to make this clear I am engaging in some liberal rounding – up and down). And there are 3.3 billion wireless users world-wide. Yeah, half the planet has a cell phone. How does that compare with other media? About a billion have used the internet. Although estimates range, most agree that there are probably about 1.6 billion TVs and slightly more radios worldwide. At the conference, an attendee asked if there was another technology that has had greater adoption. Yep, 4.2 billion people around the world have toothbrushes.
Two conclusions. Mobile is the way to communicate with the world. And with 2.4 billion not brushing their teeth, we run the risk of a global pandemic of gum disease.
Ad Potential
The mobile channel offers the most effective targeted communication medium imaginable. The cell phone is personal. Unlike TV, radio, or print, when a message is viewed, you know who saw it. Plus, the cell phone carriers have amazing demographic and tracking info at their disposal. Most of you are probably groaning at the prospect of your cell phone becoming another fount of commercials. But in a way, mobile commercials could be better. Targeted = relevant. The ads that we hate the most are the irrelevant ones that are continually thrown in our face. Spam “enhancement” products are the best/worst example. But mobile ads will know more about us – our gender (don’t you wish spammers were clued in on that front), age, and previous purchases. Soon, the ads will even be location sensitive. And, I learned a new term last week – frequency capping. Mobile ads can be set so that we only see them a certain number of times.
Sure there are challenges to overcome in mobile advertising. Standardization of metrics and defining inventory are two big ones. But, the potential in mobile advertising is just too tantalizing to ignore. There is money on the table, somebody is going to rake it in.
Transparent Pricing on Horizon
Apple wasn’t one of the 1300+ exhibitors, but not a session went by without mention of the iPhone. It wasn’t the iPhone’s technology that captured this international group’s attention. It was the “transparent pricing scheme.” It took me a while to figure out that meant the type of flat rate plan AT&T and Apple require you to subscribe to in order to own an iPhone. Every one of the carriers reported that with flat rate plans, users experimented. They watched videos. They surfed the web. They expanded their cell content repertoire. AT&T sang the praises of what a simplified pricing scheme could do to increase usage – 90% of iPhone users have surfed the web mobily. The other carriers were drooling. Mark my words. This transparent pricing scheme will take over. We will all be more comfortable doing new things on our phones. And, as a result, content producers will be more confident producing cool new things for us to do.
RPU
R(evenue) P(er) U(ser). They call it R-poo – ain’t that cute? That is how much money the carriers make off each subscriber. High RPU = cell holy grail. A representative from a cell phone carrier presented a graph that showed when a user upgraded her/his phone from a 2G model (no multimedia) to a 3G one (faster with more capability) the average RPU increased 120%. That means more money in the carriers’ pockets. So cell phone companies are going to be pushing even more creative handsets – ones with video, music, big screens, games, fun stuff. And they are going to be subsidizing them even more – that means these phones are going to be the ones that carriers will give away or allow you to easily upgrade to.
Once again, when more people have these cool phones and are using them more, there will be more creative content and more wild things we will want to do. All those ships are going to be rising with this unprecedented high tide.
Content Backers Convinced
Bob, Isabella, and Will laid it out for me at the conference. Oh I forgot, you probably know them as Mr. Redford, Ms. Rossellini, and Will.i.am (of the Black-Eyed Peas). They all talked at a very small gathering I attended (“exclusive” is the word that springs to mind). They are part of the creative corps waking up to the possibilities of mobile content. The Sundance Festival (Robert Redford’s baby) has been experimenting with mobile short films. Isabella Rossellini has produced a series of short films called “Green Porn” – they truly defy description but think Animal Planet meets the Playboy Channel. And Will.i.Am is shooting his own video with Nokia phones to be pushed out to handsets. The panels at the Mobile World Congress included MTV, ESPN, NBC, Universal, Disney. These groups are going mobile.
The biggest barrier to mobile for too long has been a dearth of creativity. With traditional content players focusing on mobile distribution, that could change very quickly.
Cell phones have already altered in radical ways the way we as individuals talk with each other. But up to this point in the US, distribution of one to many has belonged to a select group of industries – television, radio, music, film. Mark my words (and bet me if you dare) but mobile will join the pantheon of “mass” media very soon.
posted by Grady College /University of Georgia at
7:53 AM
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